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KF5JRV > TECHNI 29.10.25 11:31z 147 Lines 6675 Bytes #177 (0) @ WW
BID : 14941_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX - Oct 29
Path: SR1BSZ<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<CX2SA<VE3CGR<KF5JRV
Sent: 251029/1105Z 14941@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.24
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Oct 29 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0855 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure will
surge southward along the eastern slope of the Sierra Madre
Oriental mountains today, with the resultant tight gradient
expected to lead to strong to gale-force north winds in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec region today through Fri. Winds are forecast to
reach 35 to 40 kt tonight into early Thu, then level off to the
range of 30 to 35 kt later during Thu and into Thu night,
diminishing to fresh to strong speeds early on Fri, continuing
into Fri night. Rough seas are expected with these winds, peaking
around 13 to 14 ft. Seas generated from this event will spread
well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater
reaching as far south as 09N100W by late Thu night, at which time
they will be merging with a set of long-period southwest swell.
Seas in the Gulf will subside to less than 8 ft during Fri
afternoon. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event in the
Tehuantepec region is expected to begin Sun, possibly reaching
gale-force early next week.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at websites -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more
details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Nicaragua near
13N87W to 15N95W, from 11N105W to 11N119W and from 14N126W to
beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N
to 13N and east of 117W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on an
upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event.
A strong cold front is moving across the Gulf of America as
strong high pressure builds behind it. This is leading to fresh
to strong N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, along with moderate
seas. The remainder of the Mexican offshore waters are dominated
by a broad subtropical ridge centered well west of the area. Moderate
to fresh NW winds and slight seas are noted in the northern and
central Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate N-NW winds and
seas of 6-8 ft are found off Baja California. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient related to
building high pressure along the eastern slopes of the Sierra
Madre mountains in Mexico, in the wake of a strong cold front
moving across the Gulf of America today, will support strong to
gale-force winds and rough seas in the Tehuantepec region today
through Fri. Expect N-NE winds in the 35 to 40 kt range, with
seas building seas up to around 13 to 14 ft with this gap wind
event. Seas generated from this event will spread well away from
the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far
south as 09N100W on Thu night. The long-period northwest swell
west of Baja California will continue to subside today. A new set
of long-period NW swell will enter the waters west of northern
Baja California Thu night bringing seas of 6 to 9 ft to those
waters. This swell will be reinforced by another set later this
weekend.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
The westerly winds south of the monsoon trough have begun to
decrease as the broad envelope of Hurricane Melissa begins to
move away from the central Caribbean. Currently, moderate to
locally fresh SW-W winds and moderate seas are evident south of
the monsoon trough, with lighter wind speeds north of this
feature. Scattered showers are affecting the offshore waters of
Central America. Stronger winds and higher seas are likely in
these waters.
For the forecast, the onshore westerly wind flow that is feeding
into the broad cyclonic circulation of Hurricane Melissa located in
the central Caribbean Sea will gradually diminish today. Winds
will diminish and seas will subside thereafter. Meanwhile, rough
seas will reach the far offshore waters of Guatemala and El
Salvador by Thu due to a strong gap wind event in the Tehuantepec
region. Fresh to locally strong winds and seas building to 8 ft
are forecast for the Papagayo area Thu night into Sat as high
pressure builds over the northwestern Caribbean. Looking ahead,
long-period cross equatorial southwest swell will propagate
across the region toward the end of the week, building seas to 9
ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands starting early on
Fri.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The small tropical storm that was located well SW of Baja
California has succumbed to the hostile conditions and weakened
to a post-tropical cyclone. The remnant low is producing fresh to
strong winds and rough seas within 60 nm of the center. The rest
of the tropical eastern Pacific is under the influence of a 1026
mb high pressure system centered near 35N132W, supporting
moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds over much of the waters
north of 10N and west of 120W. This was confirmed by a recent
scatterometer satellite pass. Seas are 6-8 ft in the area
described. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds
and rough seas are noted south of 10N and east of 120W.
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.
For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will continue to dominate
the northern waters into the weekend. The remnant of Sonia will
continue westward over the next few days as winds and seas
gradually decay. The NW swell in the NE waters producing rough
seas will be reinforced late this week into the weekend.
Meanwhile, long-period cross equatorial southwest swell will
bring rough seas to the forecast region starting today. This
swell event will roughly cover the waters south of about 12N
between a line from near 12N106W to 04N95W to 03.4S90W and 125W.
This well will merge with the rough seas entering the eastern
waters Thu into Fri in association with the strong gap wind event
in Tehuantepec. Looking ahead, another NW swell will enter the
far NW waters late Fri into Sat with seas reaching 10 ft Sat
night.
$$
Delgado
73 de Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
Email KF5JRV@gmail.com
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